Weekly SmartPills #67

Financial Markets

This week, the cryptocurrency market showed a downward trend affecting the major digital currencies. Bitcoin (BTC) fell to the $82,000 mark. Bitcoin's market dominance (market share) decreased slightly to 61.19 percent. Ethereum (ETH) declined 1.4 percent, trading at the $1,800 level. These movements reflect a consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency market, influenced by macroeconomic factors and new regulations.

These movements reflect a consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency market, influenced by macroeconomic factors and new regulations. European stock markets showed positive signs. In Piazza Affari, the FTSE MIB index closed up 1.1 percent, driven by the performance of Unicredit (+3.3 percent) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+2.2 percent), supported by favorable reports from Equita and J.P. Morgan. However, Pirelli fell 2.5 percent due to rumors of a possible reorganization in the shareholding structure.

Economy and Regulation

France's public deficit was 5.8 percent of GDP in 2024 (€169.6 billion), lower than the 6 percent forecast but still nearly double the 3 percent target set by the EU. Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned that deficits and debt remain serious risks, with public debt rising to 113% of GDP. Revenues rose 3.1 percent, while spending grew 3.9 percent, driven by pension costs and unemployment spending. The government aims to reduce the deficit to 5.4 percent in 2025 and bring it below 3 percent by 2029. Economic challenges persist, with weak growth forecasts and budgetary difficulties, especially in the face of Macron's plans for increased defense spending.

The 25 percent duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on vehicles and auto components will have a significant impact on the Italian automotive supply chain, according to industry group ANFIA. Italy exports components worth €1.2 billion to the United States, while importing only €230 million, and exports three times more vehicles than it imports. ANFIA director Gian Marco Giorda expressed concern about the added uncertainty for already struggling manufacturers and suppliers. He hopes the tariffs are a negotiating tactic and can be lifted. The tariffs could increase the price of cars by $6,000 to $10,000.

Blockchain and innovation

Marathon Digital Holdings, a leading Bitcoin mining company in the United States, has announced a $2 billion "at-the-market" (ATM) equity offering. The capital raised will be used primarily to purchase Bitcoin directly from the market, thereby strengthening the company's digital reserves. This strategic move positions Marathon Digital as a key player in corporate-level BTC accumulation, following the example of companies such as MicroStrategy.

Trends and Statistics

Extra-EU Foreign Trade -

• February 2025 In February 2025, exports to non-EU countries increased by 2.8 percent, while imports grew by 0.8 percent, driven mainly by increased sales of consumer goods and energy purchases.

• In the December-February quarter, exports grew by 3.9 percent and imports by 6.7 percent, driven by the energy sector.

• On a year-over-year basis, exports fell 2.1 percent due to lower sales of energy and capital goods, while imports increased 8.6 percent.

• The trade surplus fell to 4.7 billion euros from 6.9 billion euros in February 2024, with an increasing energy deficit. Exports decreased to Turkey (-10.6 percent) and the United States (-9.7 percent), while they increased to Switzerland (+17.3 percent), OPEC (+12.9 percent) and the United Kingdom (+8.5 percent).

• Imports increased significantly from OPEC (+34.3%) and China (+18.3%).